Relegation Picture Looking Increasingly Clear

The 2017-18 Premier League campaign is in its latter stages, with Manchester City already having been crowned as champions. The four Champions League spots look all but set in stone with City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham likely finishing in the top-four. Chelsea still have an outside chance, while Arsenal can get into Europe’s biggest competition next season by winning Europa League this season.

While most of the attention is typically focused on those at the top, we can’t forget about the sides at the bottom of the table fighting for their lives. West Brom, who have amassed just 25 points through 35 games, look like goners. They are eight points adrift of 17th place Swansea with just three games to go, so it would take some kind of miracle for the Baggies to appear in England’s top flight next season.

Other than West Brom, there are still a whopping 10 teams with a mathematical chance at relegation. Bet365 is a good place to start if you’re interested in wagering on which other teams wind up moving down to the Championship next season. The odds say that Southampton and Stoke, who are both on 29 points at the time of this writing, are the next most likely candidates to be ousted from the Premier League.

Per Bet365, Stoke City are at 1/16 to be relegated, while the Saints are at 4/9. Southampton do have a game in hand with just 34 PL games in the rearview mirror, but that’s also true about the three teams immediately ahead of them. Swansea, Huddersfield and West Ham have also played just 34, while Stoke have played 35. 

Southampton don’t have the easiest run-in to the end of the campaign, either. They do get the chance to make up ground on Swansea along with another match against 11th-place Bournemouth, but they’ll also have to do battle with a top-10 Everton side and the league champions to close out the season. City obviously have nothing tangible to play for at that point, but it’s not like we can expect Pep Guardiola’s men to come to St. Mary’s and just lie down.

As for the Potters, they’ll be going up against Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Swansea to wrap things up. They do get a bit of luck against Liverpool, as Jurgen Klopp and co. will be right in the middle of their Champions League semi-final tie with Roma. Klopp opted to rest many of his starters this past week against West Brom, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a watered-down side take the field this weekend against Stoke. Crystal Palace and Swansea are certainly beatable opponents but Stoke may have dug themselves too deep a hole at this juncture.

Rafa Benitez’ Newcastle side can still technically be relegated, but they would have to endure the disaster to end all disasters for that to happen. The Magpies are sitting pretty in 10th in the league with 41 points in the bag. Southampton can still mathematically surpass that total with four games remaining, but that would require Newcastle faltering in one of their final four matches against West Brom, Watford, Tottenham and Chelsea.

Considering they’re 17th, Swans would seem to be the most likely team currently safe to fall back into the relegation zone. They’re two points south of Huddersfield, but Swansea do have a favorable end-of-season schedule. Once they get past Chelsea this weekend, Swansea’s final three matches come against Bournemouth plus relegation likelies Southampton and Stoke. The Swans are 4/1 to go down. While there’s profit potential there, it looks as though they’ll be able to cling to Premier League life for the time being.

As of now, the relegation picture looks surprisingly clear-cut considering we still have a handful of games remaining. Barring a dramatic collapse or a surprising surge from a bottom-feeder, it’s looking like a near certainty that West Brom, Southampton and Stoke City will be fighting to get back into the top flight next season.