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I started “supporting” West Ham by betting on them back when I was 17 years old. I used to go to a local betting shop near my place almost every day for the following 2 years. It was illegal but authorities were not that bothered back in 1993. An underage person could easily drink, smoke and even gamble his money away.

As you can understand, there was no internet connection at that time. There was no scope for online betting. You could only choose from tennis, horse race, ice hockey and football when it came to sports. Boxing, cycling, swimming or other sports were simply not part of the offer.

Questions may arise about my betting potential. Why did I use to visit the local betting shop almost every day? Was I winning? Well, the answer is ‘No’! As I matured, I realized one thing, I used to guess right only about 60% of the time and I didn’t go for odds over 9/10. If analyzed closely, I might have won one match and lost the rest in any 20 accumulator bets. I used to exhaust my entire monthly betting budget within a week. I wonder if I had been able to use a pay by phone facility for betting if my chances would have been improved, and if I did use one, which process platform to use, I wanted to find out if Boku is safe because I was really interested in the fact that your wagers are added to your phone bill using Boku, so NO ONE has access to your credit card details.

Explaining the maths

Probability is a crucial matter in a betting game. Let’s do practical math. If we use decimal odds, the probability is 50% for a fair odds of 2.00. The math is simple: 1 / decimal odds x 100% = probability Therefore, for 2.00, 1 / 2 = 0.5 x 100%= 50%.
You can take the stake and then multiply it by all other odds on the betting slip in any accumulator bet. If you have 3 matches with odds 2.3, 1.4 and 4.5 and let’s assume that your stake amount is £10, the chance of your winning amount will look like the following:
2.3 x 1.4 x 4.5 x 10 = £144.9 Here’s the formula for easy calculation: Winning probability = Odds(1) x Odds(2) x Odds(3) x … Odds(number) x Stake

Keep your emotions under control

Well, it’s not possible to underline the basic agenda of betting psychology in simple words. That’s because a lot of it has an emotional hazard. Let’s cut that out and follow a simple betting strategy on the basis of mathematics. In this book, I have been more concerned about betting strategy, so let’s focus on the psychology here.

Let’s assume that you have placed 20 bets and you have lost 18 of them. Strategically speaking, you would bet another £100 on the next game. And this is when, my friend, you need to quit! Even if the strategy encourages you to gamble more, you must stop. An understanding of the psychology of betting will help you to avoid the following cases.

Your bet should win

Mathematically, you may come across football predictions that suggest a winning potential of e.g. Southampton but you have placed a bet on West Ham because they should win. Such an approach is technically logical but it is going to be miserable. From my earlier experience, it completely made sense that e.g. Leeds United should win the next game in order to avoid any relegation. No matter what the football predictions had to say about it. It made similar sense that the opponents had nothing to play for. So they should let the one that has something at stake.

It really made me upset to get the results the next day. The teams that had no objective to play for have won over the ones who had to remain in the competition. Well, that’s reality. Probability doesn’t care at all about what we need.

Would be fair for West Ham to win

Again, strategic mathematical football predictions suggest that Leeds takes it all but you have placed your bet on West Ham as West Ham deserves the points. West Ham took only 2 points and it’s for them to win. Everton should let them win as they are playing in the home stadium of West Ham. Who wants to dishearten the fans who are paying so much to see the match live!

Are you thinking just the way I am thinking? Have you resonated with what I said in the earlier point? If you find yourself murmuring ‘it would be fair’, stop right there! Football or betting is never fair.

I am supporting my team

Do you place your bet on the basis of which team you support? Suppose you are a supporter of West Ham, why would you place your bet on Manchester United? I’ll tell you why. To win the bet! It doesn’t matter which team you support. In fact, expressing your support by betting on your national team is utter nonsense. Skip betting on your favourite team. Instead, bet on the one that is playing well. Your money should be placed on praxis, not on a mere ideology.

What does the probability really care about?

So far, I have discussed what probability doesn’t care about. It pays no heed to love, obligation, the “would be fair” concept, and so on. Probability cares only about probability. You don’t have to trust my words. Make an experiment yourself and you will understand what I am saying. Toss a coin 10 times and pray that heads land more than 65% of the time. Now repeat the same experiment 50 times and check the results. Apply the same logic while placing a bet. That’s the psychology and the strategy of betting, be lucky. Ed

Today is the first official day of the transfer window, although there has already been a certain amount of 'jostling' for position ahead of the starters gun! One deeply worrying rumour that refuses to go away is that relating to Chelsea's Olivier Giroud.

Time and again West Ham have been 'linked' with the 34 year old French striker over the last 18 months, and the speculation persists despite the fact that Giroud is the exact polar opposite of Moyes's RB template for players which is young, lean and keen!

It might just be lazy journalism, but the Giroud to West Ham story just won't go away, leaving many observers to conclude that there is no smoke without fire and that a move from West to East, for his final season before retiring, would suit Olivier Giroud and his family, who are well ensconced in London.

For far too long, West Ham has been the preferred destination for past it players looking for a final pay day, this engrained logic has ensured a 'no future' attitude pervades at the club and is an area of recruitment that Moyes has vowed to alter.

So it is safe to say Giroud is most definitely NOT on Moyes's shopping list, however the goalposts can move very quickly, especially if the new contract that has been on the table for David Moyes to sign for over a week remains unsigned. Even if David Moyes does sign the new contract on offer, it is only worth the paper it is written on.

Ancelotti's sudden departure from Everton is a prime example of how little contracts actually mean, and unfortunately there is the added negativity that Everton have stepped up their efforts to bring Moyes back to the club he managed so successfully for years, even leading them into the promised land of the Champions League.

If the worst happened and Moyes was 'seduced' by Everton's rich owner, then expect the acquisition of 'veterans' to be back on the agenda, but let's hope not! - Ed

There are certain football players who look as if they came from the Halcyon days of the sport back in the fifties, one such player is Hammers transfer target, Blackburn Rover's Adam Armstrong. The powerful striker is only 24 years old, but looks 34 and even his name seems to have come from a bygone era!

West Ham want to sign Adam Armstrong this summer, but now face competition from Norwich City, however the promoted champions have already stated that they will NOT be making widespread purchases, and will operate within the same tight fiscal constraints that they operated with during their last season in the Barclays Premier League.

Due to the devastating financial effects of the Covid Pandemic, particularly in the Championship and lower leagues, Armstrong could now be available for as little as £10 Million. Whereas pre-Covid his value would have been at least double that, probably more like £25 Million.

This is another example of how future deals will be conducted, at least in the short term, because clubs are so desperate for the money they need to make up their trading losses sustained due to the lack of fans in attendance in grounds. Blackburn Rovers are one of those clubs that have seen their income severely impacted by the Pandemic and have to sell players, even if they don't want to, just to try and make ends meet.
In an ideal World West Ham would have liked to have signed Ivan Toney, but that's not going to happen now that Brentford have been promoted to the top flight, but Armstrong is an accomplished striker as well, although not quite at the same level, but he finished second in the Championship scoring charts behind Ivan Toney, with 28 goals in 40 league games for Blackburn this season.

So desperate is Blackburn's need for funding, that they have had to reduce their asking price for Armstrong by £6 Million, and are now willing to listen to offers in the region of £10 Million. David Moyes loves to 'plunder' the Lower Leagues, particularly the Championship, and with the exception of Jordan Hugill, ALL of his acquisitions have been top notch.

'Incredibly mobile, possesses blistering pace and works his socks off each and every time he takes to the pitch' You couldn't get closer to the Moyes template, bit by bit the Irons manager is replacing the dead wood with the young and hungry, which is all part of his 'master plan' of developing the club.

Worryingly, rumours about Hammers supposed interest in Oliver Giroud and Marko Arnautovic still abound, and whilst we appreciate the need to bolster the striking department with very little money available, surely the club can do better? Signing either or both players seems like a counter intuitive move when bearing in mind Moyes's public declaration that he wants to model the club's recruitment policy along the lines of RB Leipzig and the other Red Bull organisations.

You can keep your has beens, acquiring such players is a mistake Hammers made regularly in the past, there comes a time when a bit of clear thinking is required, and yes there is a possibility one of either Arnautovic or Giroud might eventually end up at the London Stadium, however the club should exhaust every other option before going down the tried and tested yet ultimately fruitless path of signing such players, far better to get a young player with 'old' sounding name. - Ed